Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

875
FXUS61 KAKQ 142353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
653 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Turning much colder Thursday with gusty NW winds behind
tonight`s cold front. Coastal low pressure brings increasing
potential for some wintry weather to portions of the area on
Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong cold front crosses the area late tonight into
Thursday. Spotty light rain showers are possible tonight along
with breezy westerly winds behind the front.

2) Turning colder Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are
expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry
through Friday, there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation on Saturday.

3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast on Sunday with the
potential for wintry precip across portions of the area. Uncertainty
remains very high regarding specific impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 650 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area late tonight into
Thursday. Spotty light rain showers are possible tonight along
with breezy westerly winds behind the front.

The first round of showers has moved offshore this evening.
Additional light showers remain possible later tonight ahead of
a strong cold front. However, confidence continues to decrease
with the latest CAMs showing little (if any) additional showers.
Given the trend for drier conditions overnight, CAMs no longer
have any wintry mix and just have plain rain. Any rain moves
offshore by Thu morning as drier air moves in behind the front.
Overnight low temps range from the mid 20s in the Piedmont to
the mid 30s along the coast. Additionally, winds become W and breezy
overnight behind the front with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning colder Thursday and Friday. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Thursday night into early next week.
Mainly dry through Friday, there is a low-end chance for some light
precipitation on Saturday.

Skies clear quickly from west to east Thursday morning. Gusty NW
winds are expected in the wake of the surface cold front. Deep
mixing and very dry air aloft will allow afternoon RH values to fall
below 30% despite high temperatures only in the 30s to low 40s. Wind
chills likely do not get out of the 20s for the NW half of the area
and only in the low to mid 30s SE. Winds decrease Thursday night
with lows falling into the teens to low 20s under clear skies. High
pressure to the south moves offshore on Friday but temperatures
remain on the cool side in the 40s. A bit warmer Saturday ahead of
the cold front with highs ranging from the mid 40s NW to the upper
50s SE. There is a slight chance for a shower or two across the NW
half of the area but moisture is limited. Turning cold once again
Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast on
Sunday with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the
area. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts.

Attention then turns to Sunday as a deep trough digs southward
toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure forms off the SE
coast Sunday morning and lifts NE. 12z guidance has mainly continued
the trend of the overnight models to favor a stronger surface low
closer to the coast. The GFS and its ensembles are the most bullish
with increasing probabilities for impactful/accumulating snowfall,
focused across the SE half of the area. The ECMWF and EPS snow probs
are lower but have trended towards the stronger low pressure/closer
to the coast scenario over the last few cycles. With a low track
near or offshore, expect plenty of cold air to be in place ahead of
the surface low. At this time, it appears that p-type will be in the
form of snow with perhaps some mixed precip possible near the coast
depending on how close the low tracks. There are many moving parts
to this portion of the forecast so users are encouraged to stay up
to date with the latest forecasts as the specifics of the upper
level and surface pattern become clearer over the next 24-48 hours.
Very cold air moves into the region behind this system with below
normal temperatures expected to linger through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 PM EST Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF
period. Widespread cloud cover persists overnight before clouds
clear from W to E Thu morning. While most of the clouds are
expected to have VFR CIGs, a few pockets of MVFR CIGs are
possible across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore between 6-12z.
However, confidence was too low to reflect in the TAFs. Light
showers have moved offshore this evening. While there remains a
low chance for a few isolated, light showers overnight across
mainly the Eastern Shore, confidence is quite low. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies are expected by Thu afternoon. SW winds
around 10 kt this evening will become W or WNW 10-15 kt with
gusts 20-25 kt behind a strong cold front late tonight,
continuing through Thursday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential
for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow
showers Sat, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system
approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts the
region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight
restrictions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Strong northwesterly winds are expected tonight through Friday morning.
  High-end SCA conditions are expected with Gale conditions
  possible, particularly Thursday night.

- Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future and low water
  conditions are possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay and James
  River by Friday.

Breezy conditions are ongoing over the local waters this afternoon
ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds are around 15kt and
gusts up to 20kt. Latest buoy obs indicate seas of 3-4ft N of Cape
Charles and 2-3ft to the south. While the afternoon is falling just
short of criteria, the SCA for the northern coastal waters is still
in effect into tonight since seas/winds will come back up ahead of
and behind the cold front.

The aforementioned front will pass over the waters late tonight into
early tomorrow morning. Winds abruptly switch to the NW behind the
front and increase to 20-25kt with gusts around 30kt. SCAs go into
effect for all of the marine zones later tonight. Since this is a
fairly strong front with a 35-40kt LLJ, there could be a couple of
hours right before sunrise with gale force gusts as it passes
through. However, these should be brief and sporadic in nature since
there does not appear to be strong enough mixing during that time
period to bring those stronger winds to the surface. Will issue SMWs
if necessary. NW winds of 20-25kt continue through the day Thurs,
increasing to 25-30kt Thurs night with an another push of CAA.
Prevailing winds may be a bit lower on the upper rivers and
Currituck Sound, but are expected to reach SCA criteria regardless.
Have maintained the Gale Watch for the coastal waters north of Cape
Charles for the Thurs night period. Local wind probs have actually
trended down a bit and now only show ~50% for the waters N of
Parramore Island and <20% as far south as Cape Charles. Given the
marginal nature, the downward trend in probs, and the fact that it
is still over 24 hours out, decided to hold off on any upgrades at
this point. Winds relax to ~15kt on Friday and return to the SW as
high pressure slides by to the south. SW winds increase again to 20-
25kt Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of another cold
front.

Seas ramp up again tonight to 3-5 ft as winds increase behind the
cold front. Seas increase further Thursday night to 4-6 ft, with 3-5
ft waves possible in the Chesapeake Bay as well. Seas diminish to 2-
3ft Friday, increasing again to around 4ft Fri night. Waves in the
bay will be around 2ft Friday, then 2-3ft Fri night. Will also note
the potential for Low Water Advisories in the in the lower
Chesapeake Bay, James River and York River Fri and especially
Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RHR/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC