Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

130
FXUS61 KAKQ 060722
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns later today with the exception of a few
afternoon storms in the Piedmont. A cold front approaches tonight
and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area
Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of primarily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather
returns on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers are expected across far southern VA and NE NC this
  morning, with lower chances elsewhere.

- A few thunderstorms could reach the VA Piedmont this
  afternoon/evening before weakening as they approach I-95.

Early morning wx analysis shows mostly zonal flow aloft over the
eastern CONUS, with a weak surface low/shortwave tracking across NC
with a stronger shortwave in the Plains. Radar mosaic shows some
light rain continuing near the coast. The low will continue to track
east through NC and eventually offshore today. Can`t rule out
showers near the SE VA/NE NC coast this morning, but additional rain
amounts will average 0.20" or less. Clouds will be slow to clear
near the coast...while skies become partly to mostly sunny inland
today. Temps will rise well into the 80s near and west of I-95, with
highs only around 80F near the coast due to the persistent cloud
cover. While most of the day will be dry, numerous tstms will
develop well to our W/NW (across the mountains). There is a chc that
a few storms reach the VA Piedmont by late aftn/early evening...but
any convection likely weakens as it approaches the I-95 Corridor as
instability will diminish the farther east one goes. With decent sfc
heating/upper 60s dew pts across western portions of the FA
resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, can`t completely rule out 40-
55 mph wind gusts in the strongest storms. Convection diminishes
after 9-10 PM with dry, seasonable, and humid wx expected tonight
with lows in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected on both Saturday
  and Sunday afternoon/evening.

- A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging
  wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger
  storms is along and south of I-64 on both days.

The progressive pattern with zonal flow aloft continues through the
weekend, and a couple of fast moving shortwaves will track over the
area (leading to unsettled wx). The first shortwave slides across
the region Saturday morning, which could produce some showers.
However, a cold front will approach from the NNW later in the day
and cross part of the area Saturday night. Meanwhile, a stronger
shortwave aloft (and more significant height falls) arrives later in
the day with the approaching cold front. Temperatures rise well into
the 80s to near 90F across the southern 2/3 of the FA, with upper
60s-70F dew points expected. This will allow for ample instability
(1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid-
level lapse rates (6C/km), while the shortwave aloft/height falls
will provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM
initially across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms
then move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the
area after 10-11 PM. Unsure how much in the way of storms form
across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating won`t be as
strong. But, have moderate confidence in at least scattered tstms
along and south of I-64. One factor that could suppress
convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers linger long
enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening.
Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at least scattered
convection during the aftn/evening. With the instability in
place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to
severe tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64
where SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the
Marginal Risk has been maintained farther N. Still looks like
primarily a damaging wind threat with storm mode likely becoming
linear...although the initial cells may be able to produce
small hail (not as confident in large hail given high freezing
levels and 6C/km mid-level lapse rates). The coverage of precip
should drop off overnight Saturday as the cold front sags S.
Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F.

For Sunday, the front moves back north and likely stalls somewhere
over the CWA as secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E
along it. Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly
cross the region during the late aftn-evening. A few showers are
possible Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once
again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main focus
for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which likely
means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will be somewhat limited north
of I-64 where forecast highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most
likely timing for severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level
flow on Sunday will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on
Sat (especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected.
SPC has introduced a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal
Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, but
large hail can`t completely be ruled out. There will also be the
potential for locally heavy rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs
remaining elevated and with the front nearly parallel to the mid
level flow. Precip quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again
with lows falling into the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Monday.

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather
  expected by Wednesday.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing
out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of
20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Scattered-numerous aftn/evening
tstms are once again expected on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead
of another (fairly strong) shortwave trough. There will likely at
least some sort of organized severe threat given that the mid-level
flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent amount of instability to work
with. By Wednesday, high pressure and drier conditions potentially
return to the region as the trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures
will be near to slightly above normal through the medium range
period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail at RIC/SBY early this morning, with MVFR
to IFR (mainly due to CIGs) across SE VA/NE NC. Light rain has
been confined to PHF/ORF/ECG...and this will continue to be the
case this morning as weak low pressure tracks across eastern NC
and eventually offshore. CIGS will gradually lower between now
and sunrise, with a period of IFR expected at ECG between
08-14z, with IFR possible at PHF/ORF during this timeframe. No
worse than MVFR CIGs are expected at RIC, with VFR through the
period at SBY. CIGs improve to MVFR by midday and scatter out
during the aftn across the southeastern terminals. Isolated-
scattered tstms will develop across the mountains/piedmont this
aftn but should weaken before reaching RIC this evening. Winds
remain aob 10 kt through the period.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a
50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger in
vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms
continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the
region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast this
  morning and moves offshore.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though
  winds may gust to 15 to 20 kt at times.

- Potential for thunderstorms across the waters Saturday and Sunday.

Morning weather analysis shows a high pressure off the east coast
and a low pressure system now developing off the coast of VA/NC. The
low pressure system this morning continues to bring light rain
showers across the bay and northern ocean zones. Due to the weakness
of the system winds remain out of the east around 5 to 10 kt
with gusts upwards of 15 kt. Waves remain low with wave heights
around 1 ft across the bay and 2 to 3 ft across the ocean, with
occasional 4ft waves across the south. Later this morning and
through the rest of the day the low pressure system will begin
to track north. This will allow for the chances of showers to
decrease through the late morning hours. In addition, as the low
begins to strengthen winds will increase out of the east around
10 kt with gusts of 15 kt. With the onshore flow wave heights
will also increase to 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 3 to 4 ft in
the ocean. By this evening as the low tracks further off the
coast winds will shift out of the NW then by Saturday morning
will quickly shift back out of the SSE. Winds will still remain
between 5 to 10 kt through tonight and into tomorrow morning.
The overall weekend is looking quite optimal across the waters
as seas and winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria.
Will note, there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the waters this weekend and any strong shower and
thunderstorm will be dealt with a SMW. The main threat with
these thunderstorms will be gusty winds. As of this forecast
update the best chance of thunderstorms Saturday look to be in the
southern bay zone and south. Sunday looks to be more wide
spread across the waters. Trends will continue to be monitored
for timing of these potential showers and thunderstorms this
weekend. Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all
beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain
persistent through today and Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/LKB
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET