Tuckahoe, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXUS61 KAKQ 090031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
831 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic tonight
into Wednesday. Below freezing temperatures are likely late
tonight away from the immediate coast. More seasonal
temperatures are expected late in the week, with another chance
for showers Thursday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for much of the area for tonight
  into Wednesday morning away from the coast. Precautions to
  protect sensitive vegetation should be completed by this
  evening.

An upper trough is situated over the area this evening. At the
surface, high pressure is centered over the eastern Great
Lakes, with a cold front well offshore. Lingering mid-level
clouds remain over the interior srn VA and NE NC, but drier air
filtering in should allow these clouds to dissipate over the
next hour or so. Temps are falling fast with the loss of heating
and some inland areas have already dropped into the lower-mid
40s. Areas along and near the coast are in the upper 40s-lower
50s.

Surface high pressure centers/builds over the region from the
NW tonight and strengthens to ~1026 mb as the upper trough
flattens and gradually slides offshore of New England. Combined
with a dry airmass, clear sky, and calm to very light winds
inland, rather ideal radiational cooling conditions are
expected. Minimum temperatures will be well below average with
forecast lows ranging from the mid 20s to around 30F inland
(potentially lower 20s NW), to the mid/upper 30s along the
coasts of SE VA and NE NC where a 5-10 mph N wind will persist.
Freeze Warnings remain in effect for most of the area away from
the coast. Have added Mathews County, VA as of the evening
update given the potential for areas just away from the water to
dip to 29-32 F. Locations within the warned area will likely
experience a 4-6hr period of sub- freezing temperatures, with a
few hours of temperatures at or below 28F over the NW Piedmont.
Note there is some uncertainty across far SE VA and NE NC on the
aerial extent of freezing temperatures given these areas may not
fully decouple (as a light wind potentially persists through
most of the night). However, still expecting the cooler, rural
locations in these areas to dip to just below freezing and
freeze headlines remain unchanged.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-  Continued dry conditions Wednesday.

-  Increasing clouds late Wednesday night and Thursday, with
   showers developing later Thursday afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure remains over the region Wednesday
morning, and then shifts offshore during the afternoon as the
flow aloft becomes more zonal due to the dampening of the upper
trough. Sunny and pleasant with high temperatures ranging from
the upper 40s/lower 50s at the coast, to the upper 50s well
inland. A light E wind is expected along the coast as the high
shifts offshore, and light out of the S to SE inland. Surface
high pressure remains immediately offshore Wednesday night.
Still below average, but not as cool with lows in the upper 30s
to lower 40s. Mostly clear Wednesday evening with increasing
clouds overnight Wednesday night. A potent shortwave trough
dives into the Central Plains Thursday with surface high
pressure pushing farther offshore. Locally, the mid-level flow
becomes WSW with some energy preceding the primary trough. This
will bring a 20-40% chc of showers to the Piedmont by afternoon.
Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 50s/around 60F
N to the upper 60s/near 70F S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Rain arrives Thursday night into Saturday as another front
  moves through the forecast area.

- Temperatures will be seasonable later this weekend into early
  next week, with a warming trend developing for the middle of
  next week.

A deep upper trough digs across the East Coast Thursday night
through Saturday. Temporal issues remain amongst deterministic
models. However, the 08/12z EPS/GEFS depict the highest PW
anomalies from 06z-18z Friday. Therefore, the highest PoPs
(high-end likely to categorical) for showers in the latest
forecast are from Thursday night into Friday. There is a slight
chc of embedded thunder, especially from south-central VA into
NE NC. Low pressure and its attendant cold front sweep offshore
Friday night as the upper trough briefly closes off and lingers
over the East Coast. Temperatures should generally be in the 60s
ahead of the front Friday, with Saturday looking a bit cooler
in the 50s to lower 60s as clouds and moisture linger into
Saturday evening before drier air finally arrives Sunday. A
warming trend then follows early next week as the upper low
pushes offshore and strong ridging over the plains slowly builds
eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR is expected tonight and Wednesday under a clear sky with
high pressure over the area. SCT mid-level clouds over NE NC
should dissipate within the next hour or two. NW winds become
5-10 kt along the coast tonight and calm to very light inland.
The wind becomes S-SE 7-12 kt for most of the area Wednesday
afternoon, highest at the coast. At SBY, the wind direction
likely turns to the SW in the afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday. Flight
restrictions are likely later Thursday night into Friday as
showers spread across the area ahead of a cold front and
developing low pressure. S winds also become gusty Thu aftn
into Friday across the terminals, with gusts to 20-25 kt
lingering along the coast into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect across all local waters.

- A period of elevated SE winds is possible Thursday into
  Friday ahead of the next cold front with marginal SCA
  conditions possible.

- SCAs are possible this weekend behind a cold front.

Afternoon sfc analysis depicted a secondary cold front now S of
the local waters with high pressure building into the Ohio
Valley and an area of low pressure over New England. As such,
the pressure gradient between the low in New England and the
high in the Ohio Valley has allowed for NW winds to remain
elevated this afternoon with 15-25 kt winds with gusts up to 30
kt across the local waters (highest across the N waters). The
pressure gradient weakens tonight as high pressure builds in
with winds becoming N and diminishing to ~15 kt by Wed morning.
As such, SCAs remain in effect until 4 PM for the rivers and
Currituck Sound, 1 AM Wed for the coastal waters from Parramore
Island to the VA/NC border, 4 AM Wed for the lower bay and the
remainder of the coastal waters, and 6 AM Wed for the middle and
upper bay.

A period of benign marine conditions is expected Wed before
high pressure moves offshore, allowing for winds to become SE
15-20 kt Thu into Fri ahead of the next cold front. This surge
appears marginal, however, at least a brief period of low-end
SCA conditions appears possible Thu across the Ches Bay and
perhaps the rivers. The next cold front and area of low pressure
moves across the local waters Fri night into early Sat,
bringing scattered showers and storms Thu night into Fri night.
Winds become N behind the front Fri night, increasing to 15-20
kt Sat night into Sun.

Waves and seas were 3-4 ft and 4-6 ft respectively this
afternoon. Waves and seas subside to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft
respectively by late tonight and 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft Wed. Seas
build back to 4-5 ft across the N coastal waters Fri into Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>523.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634-
     650-652-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654-656.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RMM